Live stock price vs my DCF valuation. Updated every time you open this page.
I wrote a blog post where I valued ASML using a DCF model — three scenarios (bear, base, bull) based on their 2024 annual report. This page shows the current market price alongside my estimates, so you can see whether the market agrees with me. Spoiler: it usually doesn't.
The chart shows ASML's actual price over the past months with my valuation range overlaid. This is not investment advice — it's a learning tool.
| Parameter | Value | Why |
|---|---|---|
| WACC | 10% | Mega-cap with monopoly position, moderate risk |
| Terminal growth | 3% | Semis are structural growth, but not forever-15% |
| 2025 FCF | €10.0B | Guided revenue €30-40B, ~33% FCF margin |
| 5yr FCF CAGR | ~6% | EUV cycle matures, High-NA ramps |
| Shares | 393M | Per 2024 annual report |
Full analysis: My First DCF: Valuing ASML · Run your own: DCF Calculator