ASML Tracker
Live stock price vs my DCF valuation. Updated every time you open this page.
What am I looking at?
I wrote a blog post where I valued ASML using a DCF model — three scenarios (bear, base, bull) based on their 2024 annual report. This page shows the current market price alongside my estimates, so you can see whether the market agrees with me. Spoiler: it usually doesn't.
The chart shows ASML's actual price over the past months with my valuation range overlaid. This is not investment advice — it's a learning tool.
ASML · Nasdaq ADR converted to EUR
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BEAR CASE
€298
Cycle downturn, China restrictions bite
BASE CASE
€429
Steady EUV growth, margins hold
BULL CASE
€581
High-NA ramps fast, backlog converts
WHERE IS THE MARKET PRICE?
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ASML Price vs My DCF Range (6 Months)
My DCF Assumptions (Base Case)
| Parameter | Value | Why |
|---|---|---|
| WACC | 10% | Mega-cap with monopoly position, moderate risk |
| Terminal growth | 3% | Semis are structural growth, but not forever-15% |
| 2025 FCF | €10.0B | Guided revenue €30-40B, ~33% FCF margin |
| 5yr FCF CAGR | ~6% | EUV cycle matures, High-NA ramps |
| Shares | 393M | Per 2024 annual report |
Full analysis: My First DCF: Valuing ASML · Run your own: DCF Calculator